It is considered technical tie when the difference between candidates is within the surveys’ error margins, that is, when there is superposition of respective confidence interval of candidates.

Let’s suppose that the error margin of a certain survey is 3 percent and candidate A has 27% of voting intents and candidate B has 30%.
In this scenario, candidate A may reach a rate between 24% and 30%, while candidate B will have 27% to 33% of voting intents. Thus, both may have reached the rate between 27% and 30%, in a superposition that characterizes the technical tie.

In another survey carried out under the same conditions, candidate A may have 29% and candidate B may also have 29%, or candidate A may have 30% and candidate B 27% of voting intents.

This same reasoning is also valid to state if an election will be over in the first round or not. For example, considering a survey which error margin is 3 percent and candidate A has 38% of voting intents and the sum of all other candidates is 35%, it may not be declared that the election will be over in the first round, since the difference between the rate of the best ranked candidate and the sum of the other candidates is within the survey error margin.

In order to state that the election will be over in the first round, the difference between the voting intents for the best ranked candidate and the sum of all other candidates must exceed to survey error margin.


 

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