Results interpretation

The most common mistake when reading data of an electoral survey is to disclose rising or falling tendency of a given candidate based on minor result differences, which statically do not characterize tendency.

It is only possible to reach the conclusion that a candidate is rising or falling if it occurs for various consecutive accrual periods, and at least three of them towards the same direction.

Example: in a sequence of 5 surveys, if candidate A respectively registers 32%, 30%, 31%, 29% and 30% of voting intents, it is not possible to state that there is a rising or falling tendency: results oscillation is within the survey error margins. If said candidate had reached 32%, 33%, 34%, 36% and 38%, although the differences are within the surveys error margins, in this case would be indicating a rising tendency.

Thus, to state without mistake that a certain candidate is rising or falling, it is necessary to review the performance evolution in a series of surveys and not only compare separately the current survey to the previous one.


 

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