Sampling error margin
There is a sampling error in any survey, since not all the universe is being interviewed. As we work with samples, there is a known and calculated sampling error. Such error is calculated by taking into account sample size and survey results.
In fact, error margin that is usually disclosed refers to a maximum error estimate, considering a simple random sampling model.
For the same size of sample, the greater the homogeneity of surveyed population, the lesser shall be the sampling error and vice-versa.

Contrary to information usually disclosed, there is not a unique sampling error for the survey as a whole, since every information provided  by the survey there is a corresponding sampling error (depending on the result of each question, for example, it shall have a specific error margin).

Regarding political surveys, such errors are generally unequal for several candidates, due to voters’ geographical distribution of each of them, although the survey companies in general disclose a sole error estimate for all survey results.
Thus, when we refer to an error estimate of a certain survey as being 2 percentage points, we understand that a 25% result may have a two-point-variation, to more or less, which should be read as 23% to 27% interval.


 

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